A federal decision expected by October 1 could give the proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline — a line designed to move roughly one million barrels per day from the Edmonton area to a deepwater terminal in southern British Columbia — its first formal green light. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she's optimistic it will come.

Speaking September 28 at the Enserva Speaker Series in Calgary, Smith told an energy industry audience that Ottawa's verdict on listing WCOP under the Building Canada Act is imminent.

"I keep saying, do I have to manage expectations around an October 1 conditional approval, and my chief of staff keeps telling me no," Smith said. "So we're going to have some kind of decision very soon."

She added: "We expect the project to receive the green light."

Where does WCOP stand in the permitting process?

The project is not sanctioned. The federal Major Projects Office lists WCOP as under consideration for designation under the Building Canada Act, with the Alberta government having submitted it on July 2. Consultations with potentially affected Indigenous communities, provinces and federal permitting departments are underway.

Ottawa has committed to giving notice by October 1 if it plans to list the project. As of Smith's speech, no listing had been announced.

The proposed route would largely follow the existing Trans Mountain corridor, though the precise alignment remains subject to further development, consultation and regulatory review. A listing would start — not finish — the regulatory clock.

The takeaway: October 1 is a gating decision on process, not a construction approval.

How much production growth is Alberta betting on it?

Smith framed WCOP as the foundation for a much larger expansion of Alberta output. Current production, she said, is approaching five million barrels per day — against her earlier target of eight million.

"So what the heck? Let's increase it to 10 million," Smith joked, after discussing industry expectations.

She anchored the ambition in a provincial reserve assessment estimating roughly 177 billion barrels of recoverable oil and an updated estimate placing proven and probable natural gas resources at about 144 trillion cubic feet.

"We like to say we're sitting on an ocean of natural gas," Smith said.

The federal Major Projects Office has linked WCOP's advancement to the Pathways carbon capture project, with estimates cited by the office putting potential combined investment from production growth, WCOP and Pathways at more than $200 billion.

The takeaway: the pipeline pitch is really a supply-growth pitch, with capture attached.

What does more oil mean for gas and condensate?

Smith cited industry estimates that every additional one million barrels per day of oil production would require roughly 300,000 barrels per day of condensate for diluent — and that producing that condensate could demand approximately six billion cubic feet per day of incremental natural gas.

"We've got to figure out how to get all of that moved to the right place," Smith said, noting Alberta is working with pipeline companies on additional capacity.

The takeaway: each million barrels of oil growth pulls a multi-bcf/d gas build behind it.

Which other pipelines are on the board?

WCOP wasn't the only line in Smith's remarks. She said Alberta intends to "build new pipelines west, east, south and north to provide global markets with safe, reliable and responsibly produced energy."

The most concrete second concept is the Northern Shield Energy Corridor, backed by both Alberta and Ontario: an approximately 3,300-kilometre oil pipeline connecting Hardisty, Alberta, to Sarnia, Ontario.

Smith, appearing alongside Ontario Premier Doug Ford, also stressed supply-chain ties. "We can't do it without help from our friends in Ontario and their manufacturing sector," she said, pointing to steel, equipment and industrial components.

The takeaway: the east-west corridor is a concept with a route and a length — not yet a sanctioned project.

Does the export case hold without it?

The market-diversification argument leans on Trans Mountain's record. The federal government said earlier this month that China has become the largest buyer of seaborne crude moved through the expanded Trans Mountain system, taking roughly 60 percent of those exports.

A second West Coast line at one million barrels per day would more than double that export capability, according to the project's framing.

Smith also cited investment and expansion announcements from Enbridge, Trans Mountain, South Bow, Pembina and ATCO as evidence of renewed confidence after what she called a decade of "headwinds and missed opportunity."

The takeaway: Trans Mountain has proven the Asian demand; the question is capacity.

Watch for Ottawa's notice around October 1 — the listing decision that determines whether WCOP enters formal review.

By Elena Vasquez