By Olivia Hart

EPA puts a $45 billion savings figure on its next rollback of oil and gas methane rules. The agency plans to propose the changes within days. It marks the second round of revisions to the Biden administration's 2024 regulations, known as Koob and OOOOc.

The proposed rule text is not yet public. EPA has released neither the detailed emissions estimates nor the cost analysis behind the $45 billion figure.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin previewed the proposal Oct. 7 at the New Mexico Oil and Association's annual meeting in Santa Fe. He said the agency was responding to producers' concerns that the 2024 regulations were costly and unworkable.

EPA outlined the planned changes in a subsequent news release.

The takeaway: a $45 billion headline claim with no published analysis behind it yet.

What would the super-emitter change do?

The agency intends to eliminate the super-emitter program outright. That program allows EPA-certified third parties to use satellites, aircraft, and other remote-sensing technologies to identify potentially large methane releases. Operators notified by EPA must investigate reported events and take corrective action.

EPA said it has legal concerns about the program. The agency does not believe the program is necessary to meet Clean Air Act requirements.

The takeaway: the satellite-and-aircraft detection regime for large methane releases would end.

How would marginal wells be treated?

EPA plans to ease requirements for marginal wells (low-producing wellsites near the end of their economic life). The agency proposes two alternatives for establishing separate categories of wellsites, each carrying different regulatory requirements.

Smaller producers have opposed the requirements as too costly. EPA's own research complicates that framing: marginal wells accounted for about 7% of US oil and gas output in 2021, yet were responsible for 60% of methane emissions associated with gas production and 40% of those tied to oil production.

The takeaway: a small share of output drives a disproportionate share of emissions, by EPA's own citation.

What happens to flaring rules?

The proposal would revisit restrictions on flaring associated natural gas (gas produced alongside oil that operators often burn off). The 2024 rules established requirements to phase out routine flaring at new sources, subject to specified provisions and exceptions.

EPA said it would reconsider its approach to associated gas to give producers more flexibility.

Additional proposed changes would affect covers and closed-vent systems and give operators more flexibility on control-device requirements, including flame-monitoring data and visible emissions testing.

How does this fit the earlier rollback?

In April, EPA finalized a narrower set of revisions to the 2024 rules. Those extended the time allowed for temporary flaring in certain circumstances and changed monitoring and testing requirements. EPA estimated the April changes would save the industry $2.5 billion over 2024-2038.

Separately, Congress and the Trump administration eliminated the Biden-era methane waste emissions charge. That fee would have applied to certain oil and gas infrastructure with methane emissions above specified thresholds.

What comes next?

Environmental groups have criticized the planned rollback, and the proposal could face legal challenges.

Once EPA formally publishes the proposal, it will be subject to public comment before the agency can finalize any changes.

The watch items: publication of the regulatory text, the supporting cost analysis behind the $45 billion claim, and the inevitable court filings.